By: Luis Manuel Hernandez G. PhD
“Not everything that can be counted counts, and not everything that counts can be counted.” — Albert Einstein.
From Perception to Real Impact: Baja California as an Economic Leader
The evolution of Baja California’s economic system generates mixed opinions. As Colin Powell said, “It’s easier to believe than to think.” The focus often rests on what’s missing: more companies, more jobs, more incentives. Yet, rarely is there a clear recognition of what is already happening and growing in Baja California.
I recently participated in an industrial real estate forum where I shared a central point: the world has changed drastically between 2000 and 2024, and many continue relying on outdated frames of reference that no longer capture the state’s industrial advances. Today, every square foot of industrial space in Tijuana generates $4 in daily economic activity, compared to $2.70 just five years ago. This growth outpaces inflation, currency fluctuations, and other macroeconomic factors. It reflects a compelling reality: the industry in Baja California is evolving and creating value at a rate far beyond what is generally acknowledged.
Beyond the quantitative indicators, qualitative data offer an authentic glimpse into the productive ecosystem: the companies, suppliers, and value chains that are born, grow, and gain strength here. The Mexico–U.S. border region generates 4.2 million direct manufacturing jobs. California and Baja California together account for 1.7 million, representing 40% of the total. This is no small feat — we are not spectators; we are protagonists.
Polycrisis, Geopolitics, and Growth: The Winning Formula in the Border Region
In this context, two key concepts must be put on the table: polycrisis and geopolitics. Polycrisis describes interlinked scenarios that amplify their impacts. Geopolitics — the interplay of geography, politics, and international relations — gives us the tools to navigate these challenges. On May 30, the White House announced 75 new strategic investments; 10 of the participating companies have a presence in Baja California. Even though the investment is targeted toward the United States, the active participation of firms with operations in our state confirms our role on the global stage.
A concrete example is the aerospace sector. In the United States, technicians have an average age of 54, and by 2028, a shortage of 25,000 jobs is expected. In Baja California, we’re already generating the talent, infrastructure, and specialization required to become part of the solution.
It’s often stated that the number of firms in the state hasn’t risen significantly — from 1,013 in 2008 to roughly 1,100 in 2025, just a 14% gain. Yet this figure loses its significance when measured against its actual impact: economic activity grew by more than 450% over the same period. This is not a matter of chance or external factors; it is the result of the trust that companies have placed in Baja California, and their decision to reinvest and expand from within the state. The growth has been steady, averaging between 20–25% per year, reaffirming the strength and productivity of this bet.
Too often, these stories go untold because they’re assumed to be part of a larger macroeconomic trend. Yet those of us embedded within this ecosystem understand that this is the result of deliberate collaboration between industry, local talent, and the binational environment.
A few weeks ago, I participated in an analysis on country risk, infrastructure, and mitigation capabilities. One of the most relevant topics was the infrastructure gap. What’s most fascinating is that this 450% growth happened despite an infrastructure gap that has existed for years. Baja California didn’t wait for these issues to be resolved: it grew, diversified, and added value through services, logistics, innovation, and advanced manufacturing. According to coinciding data from the USTR and the Chinese Ministry of Commerce, manufacturing remains the foundation of regional development, with strategic impacts that often go unseen… yet sustain it.
It’s time to tell these stories. Because Baja California isn’t just growing — it’s leading.
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