By: Luis Manuel Hernández G.
Investment is driven by confidence. The commitments of the private sector are reciprocal to the functions of institutions, services, risks, and strategies developed within cities, states, and countries. Therefore, private capital requires the same predictability as governments, yet with greater speed and certainty, since they must be accountable to investors. According to the OECD, accountability may be the most significant distinction between the private and public sectors.
When a government fosters stability, market penetration, and the management of internal resources through robust budgets, we can also say, based on the OECD, that it is a non-fragile government. The opposite would be a fragile government: one that generates instability, market disruption, opacity, and unmeasurable budgets.
Fragility and Investment: A Direct Relationship
Addressing fragility in cities is not merely a temporary issue; it is a social matter with crucial economic implications. A robust economy is the prerequisite for investment and growth and, in turn, generates collective security.
Additionally, the World Bank notes that the fragility of a country, state, municipality, or locality, when it comes to investment, rarely remains confined within its borders. Just as success spreads, instability also permeates across regions, inevitably affecting binational areas. The Bank itself mentions that it is increasingly common for a local crisis to evolve into a transnational one.
Furthermore, there is the cost of doing nothing, which often appears in boards of directors due to reasons such as overboarding, conflicts of interest, lack of ecosystem knowledge, or most frequently the pursuit of “likes” on social media. Assuming someone else will make the coffee usually means no one will.
According to the CDEM, formal employment in August lost a total of 15,351 positions. If we focus solely on the manufacturing industry, with 14,148 fewer jobs, it represents a reduction of approximately 3.5% against the base. These are all public and explainable data: economy, microeconomics, tariffs, or preventive measures. It all makes sense. Our economy must focus on ensuring that urban systems can reallocate lost jobs, integrating them into other sectors and generate tangible improvements. It is also important to mention that the economy is not measured through social media “likes”; we must understand where we can contribute to truly transcend this situation.
Strong Institutions and a Vision for the Future
In recent months, we have observed how institutions weaken through perception. Social media has filled the power vacuum that arises when social perception shifts, and members feel that voice, action, and accountability are increasingly diluted. The stability of investors is fundamental to the regional economy; likewise, institutional stability is essential for business leaders.
It is a privilege to participate in private boards in Mexico, the United States, and, more recently, Canada, as it compels me to study, promote, and pursue growth. In the northernmost country of the USMCA, we are helping manage effective non-profits, as many have confused regulatory compliance with strategic direction the state has stepped fully into the control of the entities’ agendas. The restructuring of the board has taken months; manufacturing, logistics, and customs companies in the automotive sector, dependent on the Port of Long Beach, provided the key to achieving a better distribution of concrete roles and measurable outcomes.
Fifteen years ago, Tijuana became an epicenter that improved the lives of thousands of people worldwide through the manufacturing of medical devices that successfully entered the U.S. healthcare market. At that time, a generation of executives positioned medical companies as regional leaders. While many of us knew what we were doing, others simply benefited from the sector’s momentum.
And momentum itself also promotes investment. The question we must ask now is: Which sector is generating that momentum? Do we have board members who drive change or merely observe it? Which sectors will allow us to manage better development? What transformations will the upcoming amendments to the Customs Law bring?
Simple questions, perhaps, but part of a complex agenda as we approach the end of 2025, with growing uncertainty ahead of 2026. Investment will not rely solely on good projects or fiscal incentives; it will depend on institutions that inspire confidence, on cities that have overcome fragility, and on sectors that act to create momentum, not merely follow it. If we fail to seize this moment to move from fragility toward resilience, as Cities Alliance warns, we will be preparing the ground for the next crisis to find our cities and investors without response mechanisms.
